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The growing availability of LNG vessels continues to put pressure on spot market charter rated. Out of the speculative vessels, 11 are scheduled for delivery in With the majority of upcoming Australian LNG offtake already associated with charters for newbuild vessels in the orderbook, shipowners who are long on vessels are increasingly pinning their hopes on vessel retirements from the existing fleet.

Moreover, the shipping need of US LNG associated with LNG traders, international oil companies, or European utilities could provide some upside to a weaker market, though not until late at the earliest. Propulsion Systems. LNG carriers have undergone a few major step changes in design since the first vessel came into service fifty years ago. Until the early s, every LNG vessel was built with a reliable, yet not very efficient, stream turbine propulsion system, as boilers were the only means of consuming boil-off gas BOG. However, in the last 15 years, LNG carriers have undergone major innovations and enhancements with regard to propulsion systems.

Shortly after the adoption of DFDE systems, trifle diesel electric TFDE vessels-those able to burn heavy fuel oil,diesel oil and gas - offered a further improvement to operating flexibility with the ability to optimise efficiency at various speeds. Unlike the Qatari Q-Class vessels equipped with slow speed diesel SSD propulsion systems- which utilize on board reliquefaction units to handle BOG — ME-GI engines optimize the capability of slow speed engines by running directly off BOG removing the need to reliquefy the gas or utilizing fuel oil.

This flexibility allows for better economic optimization at any point in time. While there is an improvement in fuel consumption, the reliability and extent of operational flexibility is still to be determined as no conventional-sized ME-GI vessel is in the existing fleet. In order to improve the performance of a traditional steam-turbine propulsion system, the Steam Reheat engine design has been introduce, which ultimately reduces the boil-off rate BOR of the LNG on-board. The design is based on a reheat cycle, where the steam used in the turbine is re-heated to improve its efficiency.

This improvement in the steam adaptation maintained the benefits of the simple steam-turbine while improving overall engine efficiency. The Azimutal Thruster system — where the electric motor is mounted inside the propulsion unit and the propeller is connected directly to the motor shaft — has been adopted by the 15 Yamal LNG project-specific vessels. These powerful units 3 units of 15MW each allow the vessels to navigate rge Arctic conditions along the Northern Sea Route NSR with greater hydrodynamic and mechanical efficiency.

Containment Systems. To create value from the Moss-type vessels, ships considered for retirement are often converted to FSRUs. Additionally, companies are exploring the value of converting Moss-type steam designs- typically chartered at a discount relative to the more efficient Membrane- type — into FLNG units for smaller 0. Vessel Size. LNG carriers range significantly in size, though more recent additions to the fleet demonstrate a bias toward vessels with larger capacities. Prior to the introduction of the Q-class in , the standard capacity of the fleet was between , cm and , cm.

Vessels greater than , yet still smaller than the Q-Class tankers- have been most prominent amongst the recent new builds entering the market. This is partly related to the upcoming expansion of the Panama Canal, which will accommodate vessels of up to , cm and redefine the Panamax vessel class.

This share will grow rapidly in the years ahead with the average capacity in the order book standing at approximately , cm at the end of Vessel Age. Generally, safety and operating economics dictate if a shipowner considers retiring a vessel after it reaches the age of 30, although many vessels have operated for approximately 40 years. As the recent wave of newbuilds continues to flood the market, vessel owners have been turning to conversion options to lengthen the operational ability of a vessel if it is no longer able to complete in the charter market.

Typically, as a shipowner considers for older vessels — either conversion or scrappage — the LNG carrier is laid-up. However the vessel can re-enter the market. At the end of , 12 vessels all Moss-type steam tankers with a capacity of under , cm were laid-up. Ten of these vessels were over 30 years old. However, as speculative newbuilds entered the market, spot charter rates trended downward.

There were momentary increases in spot charter rates as a result of inherent regional shipping implances, though it was not enough to stave by a fundamental oversupply of shipping capacity. Rate softening was accelerated by the shut-down of Angola LNG in early , which released an additional seven vessels into the charter market as sublets. A total of 28 conventional LNG tankers and 5 FSRUs temporarily open for charter were delivered from the yard in , yet 18 tankers were laid-up or scrapped.

However, these projects required minimal tonnage from the spot charter market since the majority of vessels used to deliver the additional volumes were already ordered and chartered on a long-term basis. Instead, the vessels were forced to load cool-down volumes and accept rates below the already weak market day-rate. The oversupplied carrier market provided traders additional flexibility to bid on short-term. Free on Board FOB supply tenders. In contrast, during periods of shipping shortages, LNG suppliers typically require the buyer to nominate a tanker before being able to bid on an FOB cargo.

With plenty of shipping tonnage available for short-term chartering, traders were able to bid tenders without specified shipping capacity. Speculative newbuilds expected to hit the market in the first half of will further push the LNG shipping market into oversupply. Early will see minimal growth in LNG production to absorb the new vessels.

The capacity surplus is likely to continue until at least when Australian and US volumes ramp up, supporting additional demand for tonnage. A total of 4, voyages were completed during , a slight increase of 1. The rapid expansion in LNG trade over the past decade has been accompanied by an increasing diversification of trade routes.

Trade was traditionally conducted on a regional basis along fixed routes serving long-term point-to-point contracts. However, the entry of new importers and exporters combined with growing destination flexibility in LNG supply contracts and greater spot market trade has prompted shipping routes to multiply. Further, growing demand in the Pacific basin has increased the average distance of LNG deliveries, with Atlantic Basin volume being redirected East of Suez.

In , the longest voyage — from Trinidad to Japan around the Cape of Good Hope — was taken by three separate vessels. Conversely, the shortest voyage — a more traditional route from Algeria to the Cartagena terminal in Spain — occurred 14 times in The most common voyage was from Australia to japan, with over trips completed during the year. In , the number of voyages completed on a per tanker basis dropped as many newbuilds sat idle in Asia Pacific and owners struggled to fix then beyond spot voyages. Strong Atlantic to Pacific trade continued on the arbitrage opportunity between basins.

With the influx of unchartered LNG carriers in , a number of shippers repositioned their available tankers in the Atlantic basin in an attempt to charter them for a spot voyage to Asia pacific. However, aside from December, the weakness in Northeast Asian spot purchasing in the second half of reduced demand for the long-haul cross-regional voyages, softening vessel utilisation rates.

At the end of , conventional vessels were on order. By contrast, 31 vessels were covered by either a short-term charter i. In , newbuild vessel orders increased two-fold compared to The majority of orders in are slated for delivery by early As these larger, more efficient newbuilds hit the water, some older vessels with less capacity will likely be retired.

Many independent shipping companies made moves to dramatically grow their fleet sizes in the aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear crisis. While Golar ordered newbuilds primarily on a speculative basis, competitors such as Maran Gas Maritime and GasLog LNG chiefly placed orders based on term charter agreements with international oil companies.

In recent years, some international oil companies have chosen to move shipping off balance sheet to concentrate capital on their core business. BG has been the most notable example of this trend, renewing its fleet by chartering newbuild orders with independent shipping companies and selling off existing equity vessels to Gaslog in Over the past decade, LNG carrier costs have remained constant once controlled for capacity. With the exception of the Grace Dahlia — which was delivered in September , 68 months after the order was first placed — vessels have historically been delivered between 30 and 50 months after the order is placed.

However, the delivery timeline has varied depending on the type of propulsion system. For instance, when DFDE vessels were first ordered in the early s, the time to delivery was expanded as shipyards had to adapt to the new ship specifications. DFDE tankers delivered in saw an average time of 60 months between order and delivery. With the growing adaptation of ME-GI propulsion in newbuild vessels, shipowners may increasingly convert their previous orders to include the new propulsion system.

The flexibility to burn gas or fuel oil depending on market conditions could offer ME-GI propulsion vessels a distinct competitive advantage in the market. Additionally, one Q-Max vessel has been scheduled for a retrofit conversion to ME-GI propulsion in during a dry dock. The Previous discount rate has been in place since LNG carriers going through the Suez Canal pay tolls based upon gross tonnage, which caused the Moss-type to pay higher fees than the Membrane-type when comparing on the same cubic meter carrying capacity. Although the start-up will come a year behind the initial schedule, the mile artery of the Panama Canal connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans will become the primary inter-basin route for US LNG exports.

The trip from the US Gulf Coast to Japan and back through panama wil take 43 days, saving almost 20 days off the roundtrip voyage compared to going through the Suez Canal. Unlike the Suez Canal, charges will be by volume and not tonnage. This different structure removed any transit pricing differential between Moss-type and membrane-type vessels.

This is a very competitive tariff.


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To be considered a roundtrip voyage, vessels must transit on ballast passage within 60 days of completion of the laden passage. There could be other additional costs not factored in like security, tugboats, and reservation fees. In the US, the new law S. While the act merely highlights the benefits for shipyards and employment opportunities within the US, it is unclear how the act will be implemented and enforced.

Chevron CEO talks about the future of LNG

By the end of , the US Congress is slated to have outlined more concrete parameters in regards to the LNG-related issues in the Act. How quickly will a more pronounced three-tier market for LNG vessel charters emerge? With the growing number of speculatively-ordered fuel-efficient TFDE and ME-GI tankers being delivered from the shipyards, a multi-tiered charter rate system could become more of a prominent fixture in the shipping market.

However, as the global fleet becomes more diverse in propulsion systems and other key characteristics, rated may break out further to include 1st generation steam, ME-Gi, and Steam Reheat carriers. The varying degrees of propulsion system efficiency in the global fleet — which provides potential characters with more operational flexibility — will likely drive a more rigid segmentation of the LNG charter market over the coming years.

Charter rates are expected to struggle over the next three years as more than tankers are set to enter the market during this period. Many of the Australian projects are expected to come online during this period; however, the bulk of the volumes are contracted to Asian buyers, which results in a relatively short voyage distance.

With more production and vessels positioned in the Pacific Basin, the number of LNG carriers required for the transport of the volumes is limited. During this period of weakness, older vessels will increasingly be retired, either through scrapping or conversion to floating regasification or liquefaction units. This may provide support for the charter rated to start recovering by However, with the oil price environment casting a negative light on sanctioning new LNG supply, the recovery in the shipping market may be pushed back until the beginning of next decade.

Do non-traditional players in the LNG market have more opportunity to participate in supplying volumes? With the increasing number of uncontracted volumes expected to come online over the next five years, there will likely be a larger role played by pure traders.


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Historically, the LNG trade had high barriers to entry, with all aspects tied to long-term contacts. Now, with the LNG carrier market saturated with speculatively ordered tonnage, a healthy supply of LNG and buyers looking for shooter contract durations, the environment is set for traders to capitalize conditions.

Already two ice-classed LNG vessels have sailed the Northern Sea Route NSR during the open water navigation window in years and , assisted by Russian nuclear ice-breakers and benefitting from the shorter route from Europe to Asia. These two tax policy decisions, taken together, mean West Virginia will remain, to some extent, like a third world country of the last century: Her raw materials exported for the use of just about everyone else in the U.

WV counts for 0. Where do you come up with this stuff? And the still-ongoing teachers strike in West Virginia is proof of what you say, as some W. West Virginia has been a colony of outside capital since the coalfields first started being developed in the mid-nineteenth century…. The UK is a net importer of both oil and natural gas, their own production has been declining for years. Honesty the current situation were the US both imports and exports gas is insane. If there is enough local production, why import?

If there is deficit, why export? But Green, from dollars, is good and any regulation to control how and who to sell gas is communism, right? Any country that has no local gas production must think Americans are crazy by the way they are dealing with gas.


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  • So all this is new, and there was no takeaway capacity at first. But this takes time. And NG spot prices in the local markets spike to extraordinary levels when these shortages crop up. There has been some discussion of how a pipeline from Quebec could solve their problems. I work for a nat gas pipeline company not too far from the Marcellus, have for almost 20 years. About 7 or so years ago, it reversed direction one day.

    I would say a lot of it is Marcellus gas. You are absolutely right. And let me add that many Europeans are incredibly thankful that the US LNG exports act as a counter balance to our enormous dependence on Russian gas. And Canada imports oil to the East Coast and exports it from Alberta. Wonderful article….. The economics are the fascinating part of the political mess we are in.

    Oil has taken a back seat to NG geopolitically,as the number one destabiliser. War in Ukraine? Tension with Russia? How about millions refugees in Europe as a direct consequence of American interferiance in the blocking a pipeline through Syria? Libya a little different…. Exporting cheap US natural gas probably has more to do with international coercion than anything else.

    Supply Japan and Japan stays happy with us and all of our sordid demands. As an old oilman, I feel compelled to comment. One fact I would submit that may come into play as to our future as a natural gas exporter is that there is still a lot of conventional natural gas to be discovered on the globe. I have a few prospects for conventional gas in my filing cabinet that I could dust off if the market evolves in that direction. The last estimates I can remember from pre-fracking days are that the US alone is sufficient in natural gas for something like years, and that was based on estimated resources at the time.

    Running more autos on NG would surely be one of the prospects you mention should the economics justify it. A lot of vehicles in the world already do run on NG and propane. Probably better than running cars on resource-hungry high tonnage batteries with limited lifespan, though they will always have a place in many applications historically primarily industrial , and in niche consumer and low distance applications — as justified economically.

    Not correct. However, the following must be highlighted ahead of the quote. Energy Information Administration estimates that as of January 1, , there were about 2, trillion cubic feet Tcf of technically recoverable resources of dry natural gas in the United States. At the rate of U. The actual number of years will depend on the amount of natural gas consumed each year, natural gas imports and exports, and additions to natural gas reserves. Technically recoverable reserves consist of proved reserves and unproved resources.

    Proved reserves of crude oil and natural gas are the estimated volumes expected to be produced, with reasonable certainty, under existing economic and operating conditions. Unproved resources of crude oil and natural gas are additional volumes estimated to be technically recoverable without consideration of economics or operating conditions, based on the application of current technology. My opinion that without cheap credit and stock hype offering yield, that is to say if companies actually had to turn a profit to remain in the nat gas business, I doubt the Industry would survive very long.

    It will be interesting to see how the looming Trade War will affect the energy industry. Consumption goes up, what counts as resources etc varies. Lately, resources went up almost trillion in 1 or 2 years. Someone else at the same time would have thought different, i. NG power vehicles are not so good.

    BTU values vary between fields and suppliers, which raises issue of where you fill and what you are tuned for. There are much bigger regulator and starting problems. Propane is still readily Available for Vehicles, Nationally. Given these systems could be manufactured in the USA, it should be a win-win-win situation. Of course there has been an opportunity window, but what is it at all, if not unfair competition?

    US oil and natural gas production increases will probably remain extremely until they are not needed due to ekectric cars come along. Also, virtually all tight oil and tight gas depletion estimates have been literally blown out of the water in the last three years. Few industries adapt faster than oil. I worked in the oil industry in the tecession and believe me, finding invetors was not a problem. The most important thing is the relationship with the communities and land owners. We have completed the pre-FEED [front end engineering and design] studies, which are a lot more advanced than is usual.

    We have done a lot of exhaustive surveys trying to anticipate the challenges that are coming: from the logistic point of view, the topographic issues and the poor soil quality. Most of the reserves are at Antelope, actually. One of the most challenging parts of the construction will be the onshore pipeline, which is 60 kilometres. We need all of them. For example, there are not yet replacements for hydrocarbons which provide the intensity of heat required for heavy industries like steel, cement, and many chemical processes.

    One will be natural gas. Because it is clean. It emits half as much carbon as coal. Exports are expected to more than double over the next 10 years, as a result of planned expansion works. Raphael Mok, Senior Country Risk. PNG is one of the first movers. It is well established and successfully operating. Analyst with Fitch Solutions, says PNG has low cost, high quality gas and easy access to a number of high-growth gas demand markets in the region.

    Feed gas is. Twinza Oil is getting closer to producing gas from the Gulf of Papua. It was discovered in but it has lain dormant because there has been no commercially viable development solution. But Singapore-based Twinza Oil looks set to change all that. Improvements in drilling efficiency, production technology and development engineering have made the discovery technically and financially viable. Managing Director, Huw Evans, says the site is about 70 minutes from Port Moresby by helicopter, and 14 hours by boat.

    It is km from Western Province and 90 km from Gulf Province. The reserve is in 93 meters of water, considered a shallow-tointermediate depth. The area is highly prospective. There are a number of other gas fields that are available for development. With our infrastructure, hopefully we will be the catalysts. That is different from onshore, which is challenging because of the seismic issues. One of the characteristics of PNG, which is very favourable for development, is the extremely high flow rates that we have in the individual wells.

    Twinza has completed planning for installation work, environmental impact statements, concept engineering through to pre-FEED [front-end engineering design], tendering for all of the major components of the facilities, a macro-economic impact.

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    Evans says there are no land ownership issues because the site is offshore, but the company is negotiating with government about how best to distribute the benefits. It will be stored on the offshore vessel and then taken either into the domestic market or for international sales. They get tax revenue and royalty revenue virtually immediately and Kumul Petroleum as a partner have an equity stake in it as well. So there is a very good return to the state at relatively low cost.

    A feasibility study update was completed in March , and an environmental Impact Statement in June Referred to as the Morobe Mining Joint Ventures, it is considered a world class porphyry deposit, estimated to contain 26 million ounces of gold, 8. Newcrest Managing Director and Chief Executive. We want to partner with PNG for many decades to come. It is estimated that K The project is expected to be rolled out in stages, targeting its first production from Blockade 1, which is located metres below the surface. The aim will be to mine the high grade ore body first to generate cash flow to support the construction of Blockade 2, a bigger ore body located metres below Blockade 1.

    Biswas said the project will also help to unlock the agribusiness potential of Morobe Province. The solution? Turn it into a large scale development project that involves much more than mining. The project has been renamed the Sepik Development Project. There is a projected mine life of 33 years revised up in from 17 years , and a pathway to extend this to 45 years with average annual production rates of , tonnes of copper and , ounces of gold.

    That is just the mine. The aim is to establish a hydroelectric power facility. The installation of a regional power transmission line from the hydroelectric facility is also planned. There will be a major investment in infrastructure, including an upgrade and expansion of the port of Vanimo, an upgrade of a kilometre road south from the port of Vanimo on the northern coast of PNG to Green River, and construction of a further km road from Green River to Telefomin, including a m bridge over the Sepik River.

    This will enable access to the mine site and the hydropower station. The project is expected to provide employment for approximately people during construction and personnel during operations.

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    It is expected to create 30, indirect employment opportunities. Total tax, royalty and production levy revenue to the state and landowners is estimated to be K29 billion. Promise of gold riches finally realised The long—understood potential of the Kainantu mine is coming to fruition. By David James anadian miner K92 is ramping up its operations at its Kainantu mine. Chief Executive, John Lewins, says that the company is profitable and anticipating a mine life of over 15 years.

    It has been a long time coming. The mine was bought by K92 from Barrick Gold in , and the focus was initially on restarting mining operations on the Irumafimpa ore body. It was recognised that this ore body was also relatively difficult mining in terms of narrow veins, clay and other technical issues.

    It was therefore the intent of K92 to bring the previously unmined Kora ore body into production. Attention then turned to the Kora ore body, closer to the existing underground workings. It proved to be more prospective—and ultimately profitable. Lewins says the initial discovery hole had yields of We got 92 per cent.

    So for we will make money. Lewins says the original Kora deposit contained an estimated resource of at least 1. Kora North is estimated to have an additional 1. Papua New Guinea rates ahead of several Australian states for attractiveness to investors. They are world-class resources and. The target is to have K Government revenue from the industry is expected to be K There were mining operations in PNG in , including alluvial mining. There were nine final investment decisions pending and current exploration licences. So long as it is done on commercial terms. Since starting operations in —it is 50 years since the initial discovery of the resource—Ok Tedi has produced 4.

    According to Chief Executive Officer Peter Graham, the total net revenues from copper, gold and silver concentrate is about K55 billion. Particularly those related to the physical environment, which make operations on a day-to-day basis quite complex. We have complex geotechnics analysis of the geology , seismicity and heavy rainfall. She says PNG Power has sharply increased the number of connections and will concentrate on hydropower. It has the goal of connecting 70 per cent of the population to electricity by We will procure, and they will come and check we have done the connections.

    Then they will give us the money. It is that simple. Carolyn Blacklock. It means new funding continuously has to be found. We can only increase the number of customers on the grid by half before people stop being able to afford it. We will be able to connect you, but that line will remain un-energised. We have to bring this tariff down. So we are going to spend our money on making sure we are becoming super efficient in our power generation. Connections Blacklock says PNG Power has been doing about connections a year for the ten years to In , the.

    If the government is to achieve its energy goal of giving access to power to 70 per cent of the population by , he believes solar-powered systems must be provided to rural communities. Pittar says the cost of laying the wires for a fully-operational grid is in excess of K, per kilometre. It then costs up to K to take the power from source to the houses, and then people have to pay for a meter. Then they have to pay for power.

    Historically in PNG, mini-grids. But if a problem occurs with individual housing units it only affects that one unit and is easily repaired, according to Pittar. The company is negotiating. A difficult but rewarding build Digicel has invested heavily in PNG and the rewards are there.

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    It was our most challenging network build because the electricity grid does not go everywhere. We have towers, of which only about are on the grid. We have to fuel our towers and provide fuel with helicopter drops. So, from a build point of view, it was the most difficult network that we have done. The other thing we found is that only about one or two per cent of people had a phone, so there was a real need and an under-served market.

    We offer five signature food and beverage outlets, convention center, swimming pool and gym for your convenience. It was a way of trying to be accurate and working out where we would actually build that coverage. But I think all the risks you see in Papua New Guinea are very manageable.

    He believes the Coral Seas cable will bring. Paul Statham. But he warns that it is only one step. We have very aggressive plans to build out metro fibre across the major towns and conurbations of Papua New Guinea, leveraging our network. At least 10 per cent of our towers are only accessible by helicopter. The [rest] tend to be very difficult to get to for a variety of reasons.

    There are very complex social arrangements, particularly around landlords—but Digicel has done it. A telecommunications revolution A fibre optic connection between Sydney and Port Moresby will be transformational. Here are the answers to 10 key questions about the project.

    What is the state of the current cable between PNG and Australia? Cables generally have a life span of 25 years. The current connection is coming to the end of its useful life and has very limited capacity. It would not be able to meet the demand predicted for the next 25 years.

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    When will the new cable be up and running? The cable will have four fibre pairs, about the width of a human hair each. What is the cost? How will it change capacity? The cable has a technical maximum capacity of 10 terabytes per second, which is about times current capacity. What are the stages of construction?

    A marine survey will define the precise route that the cable will traverse. Terrestrial construction activities will take place, including building the cable landing stations in order to connect it to domestic infrastructure in PNG and the Solomons. The cable itself will be manufactured in Calais, France, then shipped and installed towards the end of The installation in PNG will only occur in the last three months of the project. Where will it be connected to Papua New Guinea? The landing site will be Kila Kila in Port Moresby.

    The undersea cable will be dragged up to the shore and then connected to a cable station that will be built on top of the cliff. Which organisations will be involved? Vocus Group has been selected to manage the delivery. The work to build and lay the cable has been subcontracted to AlcatelLucent Submarine Networks, while Telstra will provide the facility on the Australian mainland.

    Vocus has form: it built a km cable to connect Darwin to Port Hedland, and is working on a km cable to connect Perth with Jakarta and Singapore. What are the funding arrangements? It is majority-funded by the Australian Government: on a two-thirds, one-third basis. The funding only applies from the Sydney hub to Port Moresby and the connection to the Solomon Islands.

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    It does not include the cost of the on-shore network in PNG. Who will own it? The revenue that is generated through the cable system will be per cent owned by PNG and the Solomon Islands. They will own, independently and separately, the right to the data that is generated through the cable. What will happen with the onshore connections?

    ANCL has capacity out of Port Moresby on its Boeing aircraft and, as a result, has been reviewing ways to fill the under-utilised space while also assisting exporters, Kraus explains. Traders of commodities currently taking advantage of the offer are dealing in coffee and cocoa, chocolate and cocoa powder as a finished product. There are currently 22 national airports owned and managed by National Airports Corporation with an estimated rural air strips—of which more than half are closed or unusable. One hundred and twenty have been rehabilitated and are in use under the administration of the Rural Airstrip Agency.

    By Kevin McQuillan Over the next five years the Government will focus on developing a sea transport system that is easily accessible by the rural maritime sector. The ambition is to create a major trans-shipment hub in the Pacific that serves as a crucial bridge between the growing Asian economies and the Pacific. That will attract all the wet and dry bulk cargo over the other side [of PNG]. So, there are greater things in store for our main port down in Lae.

    Cargo volumes are increasing, along with ship sizes. The non-containerised cargo will go on the other side, at the Western tidal basin. If anything, the lesson learnt in this country is that it is always prudent to get it right at the front end, so that we can get all projects done and delivered properly.

    The government has made investments of over K1 billion in the sea transport sector over the past 10 years.